Here’s are some excerpts from the actual paper (courtesy of our heroes at Sci-Hub): Physical touch experiences may create an ontological scaffold for the development of intrapersonal and interpersonal conceptual and metaphorical knowledge. From the abstracts I read, it seems like a legitimate approach to ‘wandering around’ in hypothesis space, but I don’t see how it’s a replacement for rigorous statistics. However, despite individual differences, salespeople are impacted by NpS and behaviors in some form, as are represented in the studies and results included in our research. This is bad science, and bad science is at best useless, and at worst dangerous, not to mention expensive. Ditto education. The psychologists who did care about mathematical rigor were at a disadvantage since they couldn’t match the publication output of their p-hacking counterparts. It’s a great starting point for new research, but I won’t put it in a paper unless I properly followed up on it. The frosty nature of the parents was later forwarded as a cause for their children’s disorder, a position that was furthered in several later papers from Kanner, and became widely accepted within the medical community. Genes are not the codex by which the rich tapestry of human achievement can be demystified—they are but one constituent. In fact, most traits How can anyone do science when they have to actually withstand scrutiny? I could just imagine the researchers trying 27 clipboards of different materials, 4 surveys plus 15 blood tests to measure impact, and 906 interaction effects just to be sure that something somewhere will hit a publishable p-value. If the study looks like it tried 20 different things to get a p-value, it has. Some p=0.06 result will be entirely due to noise, but a lot of them will point to something real that just needs to be confirmed by a stronger replication. Here’s what you need to know to ace the quiz and avoid falling for the next piece of psych nonsense. Schizophrenia is The fun part is that you can guess which studies are multiplicitous just from their abstracts. Does anyone actually believe that if the candidate was rated as easier to get along with they would admit that it contradicts their hypothesis instead of making up a just-so story about how the candidate is a “solid person” you can “lean on”? Finding robust results is very hard, but getting sexy results published is very easy. Recent research that has examined physiological parameters associated with odor-evoked memory has found that odor-evoked memories may decrease systemic inflammation. The only way to make a result like that “sexy” is to blame it on the patriarchy, and most psychologists aren’t that far gone (yet). Today, allow me to present Jacob’s Rule of Anti-Significance: A result with a p-value just above 0.05 could well be true. This falls under two of your categories: 1. the same genes that influence fathers’ tendency to leave home also predispose their daughters to early promiscuity The standards of the field were such that they could get away with criminal methodology. Counterfactual Thinking Research sheds new light on the mental processes involved in "counterfactual thinking" in which past decisions are reviewed and alternatives evaluated. p=0.06 roughly means that the measured effect is 1.5-1.9 times the standard error, depending on the test used. This terribly unsexy study replicated with a large effect size. Is there a good source of psychology preprints, sort of like arxiv? This is also a place to talk about your own psychology research, methods, and career in order to gain input from our vast psychology community. Google Scholar provides a simple way to broadly search for scholarly literature. For example, it was long thought that When they make me king, a lot of things are going to change around here …. I’ve been suggesting for decades that every Master’s degree in any Psych field should be a replication, preferably a high-powered one. “Participants automatically project agents’ beliefs and store them in a way similar to that of their own representation about the environment (a comparison of the mean reaction time between the P-A- treatment and the P-A+ treatment)”. Describe the study's limitations as well as any future applications. highly heritable Receive mathy life wisdom straight to your email. Any holes in this argument? The chance that the p-value of a study will land precisely in the 0.045-0.05 range is 0.005 (1/200) if the effect doesn’t exist. With the exception of a few rare and particularly cruel diseases, this is not the case. Actual sexiness research is not “sexy” because it keeps running into inconvenient results like that rich and high-status men in their forties and skinny women in their early twenties tend to find each other very sexy. If a study has p=0.049 it is fake. Interesting psychology articles from around the net -- Great articles about psychology -- A list of the best articles on psychology Intelligence The Science of Success by David Dobbs Even if the effect is true and equal precisely to the p=0.05 line, there’s a mere 1/60 chance of the measured p-value falling in that tiny window. Change ), You are commenting using your Google account. expressed emotions Perhaps the reluctance to acknowledge this position comes from a sense of resignation that the involvement of genes invokes. Research says “when cell phone use becomes an addiction, the behavior becomes stressful”. Identify the effects of social isolation and loneliness on physical, mental and cognitive health. Also, the classic (you probably know this one already) bad research example: Ice Cream causes murder! Curing the World of Men – Put A Number On It! Let’s start with the first part: how likely is a result with p=0.06 to replicate? Of course, the replication found an almost-significant result in the opposite direction of the original — people in the “poor condition” paid more attention and did better. But a study that tried 100 things and tells you about 3 of them is like a criminal on trial who mentions that there are some banks that he didn’t rob. Psycho: It’s the opposite! Is there any merit to psychological constructionism? Psycho: Cleaning one’s hands “eliminates the postdecisional dissonance effect” by priming you to think of a “clean slate”. Unfortunately this body of literature has been ignored by a lot of psychologists, particularly those favoring environmental explanations for behavior, and consequently, the history of the field is replete with examples of scientists erroneously attributing a causal role to parents’ behavior. Genes may be more important than other influences in establishing some traits, and less important for others, but at almost all levels, they provide some guiding principle of organization, small hands nudging here and there in confluence with the miasma of our lived experience. Die Psychologie ist keine Wissenschaft | Statistik, Umfragen & Sonstiges, The Skewed and the Screwed: When Mating Meets Politics. “Participants in a condition that simulated the stress of being poor did worse on an attention task than those who simulated the ease of being rich.” Muy sexy, as is anything that has to do with educational interventions, wealth inequality being bad, discrimination being really bad, or any other result that easily projects to a progressive policy platform. Everything published before 2016 is provisional. And if they haven’t, we’ll catch them. But it’s harder to get away with bullshit studies if everybody knows how to spot them and everybody knows that everybody knows. Our second study investigated how metaphorical associations with weight affect decisionmaking […] Here, a main effect of clipboard condition, was qualified by Grandma: Wait till I tell my grandson about this, he’ll make an entire career out of mocking people like you. #IYI #SkinInTheGame #LindyEffect. The truth, as it is often want to, lies somewhere between the two. He set up an experiment with “teachers” who were the actual participants, and a “learner,” who was an actor. Plagiarism guidelines retracted for ... plagiarism. Click to share on Facebook (Opens in new window), Click to share on Twitter (Opens in new window), Click to share on Pocket (Opens in new window), Click to share on Reddit (Opens in new window), Click to share on Tumblr (Opens in new window), Click to email this to a friend (Opens in new window), I am the very model of a self-recursive modeler, The replication crisis in psychology replicated, Participants automatically project agents’ beliefs, Participants in a condition that simulated, he noted that things have only gotten worse, https://www.chronicle.com/article/I-Want-to-Burn-Things-to/244488?key=ONA-J8qTe05O7njbTd0tJxVPc8Wh8rPZLgfV3j9qtQvPw_NSaQoPLX5LOtOxfok8TDJSbDZYakViRTN1RW9qdjFKT1BZUUJTc3dBUjM0N1AyRlFJV2dnVzEyQQ, New top story on Hacker News: The Scent of Bad Psychology – News about world, New top story on Hacker News: The Scent of Bad Psychology – Latest news, New top story on Hacker News: The Scent of Bad Psychology – New Content, New top story on Hacker News: The Scent of Bad Psychology – Tech + Hckr News, New top story on Hacker News: The Scent of Bad Psychology – World Best News. The psychological tension that accompanies the execution on animals of more or less but always painful procedures in scientific experiments can have a far-reaching negative impact. Researchers can’t pretend that the “replication messed up the experiment” if everyone can tell at a glance that the study will never replicate. – Put A Number On It! Hmm, I wonder if I’d have done better if there were no “I don’t know” option… should’ve kept track. Eventually, if you want to say something meaningful about humans in general rather than just about test subject #42, you have to bunch them into groups that you consider homogeneous for what you need up to noise, and show significant differences. It is as simple as that. Positive Psychology and Therapy Research: Cognitive Therapy and Research Special Issue: Positive Emotions and Cognitions in Clinical Psychology, June 2017. Becoming Secure: The Science of Healthy Relationships. Upon a globe of math, a blog of math and puns. Psychologist: You see, Taleb’s grandma, there’s a clear link between washing your hands and justifying album-ranking choices. Find a research article that describes one of the negative effects. We can inherit the same genes that make our parents aggressive, rash, or impulsive, and the influence of these genes can be easily confused with the environment that we’re reared in. I’m actually a psychologist, had to study all those stats. Obesity is 34 participants, 14 statistical tests run, and NOBODY has even heard of correcting for that. The researchers interpret the role of the parents’ distress during the visit as causal, arguing that parents who are more anxious and distressed are less able to support their child during the procedure. Don’t even get me started on analysis of variance …. “Psychological construction theories make no claims about specific patterns for each emotion category, so their validity does not rise or fall based on finding them. Published July, 2009 in the Journal of Clinical Psychology in Medical Settings. This study is basically a p-hacking manual. Also known as positive-negative asymmetry, this negativity bias means that we feel the sting of a rebuke more powerfully than we feel the joy of praise. Corresponding Author. For example, the more common drive in research to find similar instances of ‘fear’ which exclude any dissimilar instances as outside the boundaries of the fear construct. Example 2: “If you imagine eating an M&M 30 times, immediately afterward you will eat fewer M&Ms from a bowl.” Do it. in which they quote research from the last 50 years to argue that if you have intimacy problems, then your parents are to blame because of their attachment behavior. I got an A+ in my statistics class in grad school by following this rule religiously. Now do it 29 more times. A lot of them probably left to do something else, like advertising in the 1960s or consumer data science in the 2010s. Whichever way the effect goes, I had reason to believe it would be true. When people hear that genes have a causal role in establishing our character, they assume this is shorthand for unchangeable or immutable. In 1990, he noted that things have only gotten worse. Most psychologists couldn’t understand the mathematics of what was wrong or didn’t care to try. If the purported effect sounds implausible, it is. Psychologists used to talk about their next clever study; now they fret about whether their findings can withstand withering scrutiny. Bad impressions and bad stereotypes are quicker to form and more resistant to disconfirmation than good ones. I wonder if those defending the old order realize how pathetic they sound. Why were voices like Cohen’s ignored for more than 5 decades? By comparing the similarity between identical twins who share all the same genes and non-identical twins who only share on average 50 percent of their genes, scientists can model how important genes are for any given trait. Aug 28, 2015 Real crisis in psychology isn't that studies don't replicate, but that we usually don't even try This seems like a rather sensible and intuitive conclusion to draw; however, the researchers should have absolutely no confidence in doing so. We did a Review of the psychological impact of quarantine using three electronic databases. Do they really think that the wheel will turn back? They say a field that once seemed ascendant, its latest findings summarized in magazines and turned into best sellers, is now dominated by backbiting and stifled by fear. This produces results that are uninterpretable. They aren’t beholden to finding probabilistic patterns of relations between every instance of an emotion category. In Bayesian terms, which are the terms we should be using anyway, a p-value in the 0.045-0.05 range gives a 60-200 times higher likelihood to the hypothesis “the study was p-hacked by bad researchers” than to the hypothesis “the study landed on that p-value by accident”. Participants using heavy clipboards rated the candidate as better overall and specifically as displaying more serious interest in the position. In the 1950s, Harry Harlow of the University of Wisconsin tested … But the standard error is a function of sample size – it should decrease with the square root of the number of subjects. My score was 24. In the whole group, there are very few really warmhearted fathers and mothers.”. Psycho: Well, it was good enough to get published in Science. Are you saying that peer review by experts isn’t a guarantee of true results? and for a long time were presumed to have contributed to the formation of the disease. 2006), as well as enhance psychological well-being (Collins 1998). Posted May 1, 2017 Those are scientific terms, so you know that this is serious science. In our first study, testing influences of weight on impression formation, we had 54 passersby evaluate a job candidate by reviewing resumes on either light (340.2 g) or heavy (2041.2 g) clipboards. Grandma: Just because we use the word “clean” in English to refer both to hands and to your conscience doesn’t mean that thinking about cleanliness in one context will change your behavior in the other context. The negative bias is our tendency not only to register negative stimuli more readily but also to dwell on these events. seems like they could just re-evaluate the papers by giving them a second look (by different editors in the same journal). Here’s what you need to know to ace the quiz and avoid falling for the next piece of psych nonsense. This means that the true effect is now 0.8*3.1 = 2.5 times the standard error of the new experiment with the larger sample.  This is more than enough for a successful replication. Thanks! Decisions on how to apply quarantine should be based on the best available evidence. Consequently, genes confound any study correlating parents’ behavior with their child’s attachment, even in adulthood, making this data essentially useless in understanding how parenting affects our development. . Similarly, the households of schizophrenics have been found to have higher Imagine yourself eating an M&M: picking it up, chewing, swallowing. Post was not sent - check your email addresses! The journey from genes to tissue is complex enough to have defied our understanding despite rigorous inquiry for hundreds of years—let alone the marvelously sophisticated transition from physiology to thoughts, words, and actions. Yet, autism spectrum disorder is . More importantly, p=0.06 means that the researchers are honest. Reference Dimidjian and Hollon 2– … The measures of children’s anxiety and pain were positively associated with parents’ distress levels. That can tell something on the present battle order in psychology (I must say that I admire young data thugs): https://www.chronicle.com/article/I-Want-to-Burn-Things-to/244488?key=ONA-J8qTe05O7njbTd0tJxVPc8Wh8rPZLgfV3j9qtQvPw_NSaQoPLX5LOtOxfok8TDJSbDZYakViRTN1RW9qdjFKT1BZUUJTc3dBUjM0N1AyRlFJV2dnVzEyQQ. In a new article, “Spanking and Child Development: We Know Enough Now to Stop Hitting Our Children,” Elizabeth Gershoff reviews recent research on spanking. Good news: A prediction market where research peers could bet on which results would replicate identified almost of them correctly. You have to read each paper on its own. The purpose of this article is to describe the face of poverty in the Philippines. Thus, sexy results generally lack robustness. The first sign that you’re about to be fed bullshit is an abstract full of 4-syllable words where 2-syllable words would do. The QRI Ecosystem: Friends, Collaborators, Blogs, Media, and Adjacent Communities | Qualia Computing. Whatever effect it claims to have found is just an artifact of multiple hypothesis testing. Let’s just put a bright line down right now. The damaging effects of parental neglect and abuse are all too well established. of obese children is frequently claimed to cause the child’s weight gain. Since WHEN did fancy fiddling with correlations allow us to say anything at all about causation. But that was in Brazil … when I got to grad school in North America, there was all this ‘cleaning up’ of data sets going on …. This is the “elderly Hispanic woman effect”. Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. highly heritable If identical twins are more alike than non-identical twins, then genes may be important, and researchers can use complex statistics to generate an estimate of the relative importance of genes and the environment. If you’re not familiar, it’s a research program that turns away from a lot of how psychology was regularly done e.g., facultative parts of brain and mind and neurophysiological correlates that are touted as the locations of emotions or thoughts. Looking at human and cultural variety to come up with unorthodox classifications is a neat idea, but you still need to prove the results. To the extent that we obfuscate this with wishful thinking or outright denial, we hamstring our potential to uncover the truth of the world around us. They try to explain emotional phenomena by treating them as higher-order constructs rather than elemental building blocks, and in doing so, try to find more elemental and granular components that can reliably predict the variability in heterogeneous instances of the ‘same’ construct rather than shoehorning more p <0.05 research that just adds sediment to a generally agreed definition of the construct while sweeping anything that doesn’t agree under the rug as another “more study is recommended to explain these results.”. Research from the University of Oregon published in Psychological Science suggests that short-term memory capacity is a strong predictor of IQ. First of all, the two are correlated-- so that must be shown as not necessarily (people really don't get on any sort of deep level the difference between correlation and causation). While it’s certainly true that a lot of psychology was junk science in the pre-2016 era, it wasn’t clear whether things will improve from 2016 onwards. Make a report about this study, their methods, participants, and findings. One particularly damaging case comes from the 1940s when Leo Kanner undertook a case study of 11 children with autism and
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